上周，真子公主(Princess Mako)与她留着蓬松头发的大学同学订婚的消息，给整个日本增添了欢乐的气氛，但同时也突显出一个棘手的问题：菊花王朝皇室的人丁日渐稀少。

Princesses are required by law to leave the imperial family when they marry a commoner, as the popular 25-year-old Mako will do when she weds aspiring lawyer Kei Komuro, reducing the membership of the imperial family from nineteen to eighteen.

按照日本法律的要求，公主嫁给平民时要离开皇室。当25岁的、备受爱戴的真子公主嫁给有抱负的律师小室圭(Kei Komuro)时，日本皇室成员人数将从19降至18。

Combined with cabinet approval on Friday for a bill allowing 83-year-old emperor Akihito to abdicate, the engagement has ignited a public debate — not about female succession or rights but rather about how to secure an adequate supply of royalty.

上周五，日本内阁批准了允许83岁的明仁天皇(Emperor Akihito)退位的法案。真子公主订婚的消息与这条消息结合在一起，引发了日本公众的讨论，讨论的主题不是关于女性继承或女性权利，而是关于如何确保皇室人丁兴旺。

The response underlines Japan’s uneven record on gender equality, with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe touting so-called “womenomics” while remaining firmly against allowing a woman to become empress, as well as the multifarious issues caused by Japan’s low birth rate and ageing population.

这种反应突显出日本在性别平等方面的失衡记录——日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)一边鼓吹所谓的“女性经济学”，一边坚决反对让女性成为天皇——以及日本低出生率和人口老龄化引发的各种问题。

“Her engagement is certainly cause for congratulation. The issue is who will take on the big public role she has been fulfilling since she came back from her studies in England,” said Yasushi Kuno, a veteran journalist who has covered the imperial family for decades.

数十年来担任日本皇室报道工作的资深记者久野靖(Yasushi Kuno)表示：“她订婚这件事肯定是要恭喜的。问题是，谁将承担她自英国留学归来后一直担当的重要公共角色?

“As the numbers fall, the burden on the remaining family members increases. If the trend continues then ultimately only Prince Hisahito will be left and he cannot do all the work of the imperial family by himself.”

“随着皇室成员人数下降，余下的成员的负担增加了。如果这种趋势持续下去，那么最终将只剩下悠仁亲王(Prince Hisahito)，而他一个人是不可能承担皇室全部工作的。”

If the current emperor abdicates as expected at the end of 2018 then his son, Crown Prince Naruhito, will succeed him. Naruhito’s only child is a daughter, Princess Aiko, now aged fifteen. Next in the line is therefore Naruhito’s younger brother, Prince Akishino, and then his only son, the 10-year old Hisahito.

如果现任天皇按预期的那样在2018年底退位，那么他的儿子德仁皇太子(Crown Prince Naruhito)将继位。德仁只生了一个孩子，是个女儿，即现年15岁的爱子公主(Princess Aiko)。第二顺位皇位继承人是德仁的弟弟文仁亲王(Prince Akishino)，第三顺位继承人是文仁亲王唯一的儿子、现年10岁的悠仁亲王。

Some analysts had hoped Emperor Akihito’s abdication would galvanise a movement to let women inherit the throne. But an expert panel appointed by Mr Abe warned only that the shrinking royal family needed to be addressed “without any further delay”, making no reference to the issue of female succession.

一些分析人士曾希望，明仁天皇的退位可以激励一场让女性继承皇位的运动。但安倍指定的一个专家小组只警告了皇室的日益萎缩需要马上解决、“不能再拖延”，而没有提及女性继承问题。

“For those who support the male line, they want to fight it out until the very end and postpone the issue as long as possible,” says Hideya Kawanishi, an associate professor at Kobe College. “But it’s a big dilemma for the current administration since the situation doesn’t allow them to do so.”

神户女学院大学(Kobe College)副教授河西秀哉(Hideya Kawanishi)说：“对于那些支持由男性继承的人来说，他们希望斗争到底、尽量拖延这一问题。但它是现任政府面临的一大难题，因为当前的情况不允许他们这样做。”

A large majority of the Japanese public already backs the idea of female succession but Sota Kimura, a professor at Tokyo Metropolitan University, says support is passive and there is no real pressure on Mr Abe to act. That is partly down to the low profile of Princess Aiko, who has mostly stayed out of public view, amid concerns about her own health and that of her mother Crown Princess Masako, who has suffered from chronic depression.

大多数日本民众已对女性继承皇位的主意持支持态度，但首都大学东京(Tokyo Metropolitan University)教授木村草太(Sota Kimura)说，这一支持是被动的，没有什么切实的压力让安倍去采取行动。这在一定程度上归因于爱子公主的低调，她大多数时间不出现在公众视野里，她和她母亲——长期患抑郁症的皇太子妃雅子(Crown Princess Masako)——的健康问题也引起外界的担忧。

“It may be that only the worst-case situation would serve as a wake-up call,” Mr Kimura said, referring to circumstances under which Prince Hisahito would not be able to take the throne. “The current emperor and other members of the imperial family are increasingly feeling cornered because the debate has not moved forward.”

木村说：“也许只有发生最坏的情况才能敲响警钟。”他这里指的是导致悠仁亲王无法继承皇位的情况。“现任天皇和其他皇室成员越来越感到走入了绝境，因为这件事的讨论没有取得进展。”

The most obvious answer to the royalty shortage is letting princesses such as Mako stay in the imperial family after marriage. But that is too much for hardline conservatives.

解决皇室人丁稀少问题的最明显答案，就是允许真子等公主婚后留在皇室内。但这是强硬的保守派无法接受的。

“There is likely to be much resistance to opening a path for princesses of the blood or even male descendants of the matrilineal line to possibly assume the throne,” said the nationalist Sankei newspaper in an editorial.

民族主义报纸《产经新闻》(Sankei)在一篇社评中表示：“想为皇室公主乃至公主的男性后代开辟一条有可能继承皇位的道路，多半会遭遇很大阻力。”

The conservatives’ solution is to draft some new princes from older branches of the imperial family and bring them into the royal household. But Mr Kuno says such princes might not want to sign up for a life of ceremonial hand-waving, and they have not been brought up steeped in imperial tradition.

保守派提出的解决方法是从皇室家族的较古老分支中挑选出一些新的亲王，让他们进入皇室。但久野表示，这样的亲王可能不想加入皇室一辈子在仪式中挥手，而且他们在长大过程中也未接受过长时间的皇室传统教育。

“Would the public be satisfied?” he says. “I think it is not a very realistic suggestion.”

“民众会满意吗?”他说，“我认为这个建议不太实际。”